Special Session on:
Modeling and Analytics for Hydrologic Impact Assessments due to Climate Change


Auroop Ganguly, Northeastern University
Mukesh Kumar, Duke University

Featured Speakers:

David Pierce, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, "Using Observations to Better Assess Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Western U.S."
Karsten Steinhaeuser, University of Minnesota, "Exploring Data Mining and Machine Learning Methods for Hydrology"


The impacts of climate change are expected to increase vulnerabilities in water resources with consequences on ecosystems, hydraulic infrastructures and the water-energy nexus. However, large knowledge gaps continue to exist in our understanding of hydrometeorological processes in the atmosphere, oceans, land and the terrestrial biosphere. The corresponding uncertainties propagate from estimation of greenhouse gas emissions to climate models and all the way to models of hydrology and water-related infrastructures, with implications for adaptation and policy. As has been pointed out in the literature, predictions and planning based on assumptions of stationarity and empirical characterizations may be inadequate under climate change scenarios. There is a critical need for innovations in modeling, observations, data analysis and uncertainty assessments that can contribute to improved knowledge about climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle at multiple spatiotemporal scales. These new tools, methodologies, techniques and models need to cater to multiple users: from climate scientists and hydrologists to decision makers and stakeholders. The goals range from enhanced understanding of the physical processes, improved and actionable predictions at higher resolutions and eventual translation to decision and policy making. The physical modeling challenges include understanding the feedback between the terrestrial, biosphere, ocean and atmosphere components, to generate precise predictions at resolutions that are relevant to decision making. The data analyses challenges comprise developing novel predictive insights from observed and model-simulated data to evaluate vulnerability of the built and natural environments. In this session, we welcome submissions that emphasize scientific advancements and/or stakeholder-centric solutions centered on hydrological impacts of climate change. Papers that provide demonstrable improvements to the state-of-the-art in physical modeling or analytics, assessment, management, preparedness and policy are particularly encouraged. Submissions may detail applications, case studies, algorithms, process characterizations, data analysis techniques and physics-based model development.

Papers and Abstracts:

Theoretical analysis of topographical, geological and climatic controls on the groundwater system
Etienne Bresciani, P. Davy, J.R. de Dreuzy

Impact of Climate Change on Canadian Surface Water and Groundwater Resources: A Continental-scale Hydrologic Modeling Study using Multiple High-resolution RCM Projections
Jianming Chen, Edward Sudicky, Jonathon Gula, W. Richard Peltier, Young-Jin Park

Predictive insights for precipitation extremes under non-stationary climate
Debasish Das, Auroop Ganguly

Coupling the MIKE SHE hydrological modelling tool with the HIRHAM regional climate model using OpenMI
Martin Drews, Michael Butts, Søren Højmark Rasumssen, Sara Lerer, Jesper Grooss

Assessment of Ecohydrological Impacts Under Climate Change Scenarios from CMIP5
Forrest Hoffman, Jitendra Kumar, Richard Mills, William Hargrove

Toward a Bayesian Approach for Quantifying Regional Uncertainty in Precipitation Extremes using Global Climate Models
Evan Kodra, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Auroop Ganguly

Current and future assessment of the main aquifer units contribution to the river discharge of the Loire basin during low flow
Céline Monteil, Nicolas Flipo, Michel Poulin, Mohamed Krimissa

Integrated Flow and Water Quality Modeling for Ecosystem Restoration in the Lake Calumet Area
Yanqing Lian, George Roadcap, Ximing Cai

The Climatic Effects of Deforestation in South and Southeast Asia
Rachindra Mawalagedara, Robert Oglesby

Evidence of Climate Change on High Andean Mountain Watersheds: Chinchina River Basin, Colombia
Olga Lucia Ocampo, Jorge Velez, Adela Londono

Hydrologic Impact Assessment due to Climate Change at Chinchina River Basin, Colombia
Olga Lucia Ocampo, Jorge Vélez, Adela Londoño

Using Observations to Better Assess Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Western U.S.
David Pierce, Daniel Cayan, Julie Vano, Tapash Das, Dennis Lettenmaier

Exploring Data Mining and Machine Learning Methods for Hydrology
Karsten Steinhaeuser

Estimation of climate change impacts on the coupled surface-subsurface hydrosystem of the Upper Rhine graben
Charlotte Thierion, Florence Habets, Eric Martin, Solen Queguiner, Simon Lecluse

Evaluating and comparing current and next generation climate model-simulated precipitation mean states and extremes
Joshua Tolen, Evan Kodra, Auroop Ganguly

Finite Element Method for Single-phase and Multi-phase Partly Saturated Subsurface Flow
John Van Esch