Special Session on:
Optimization and Uncertainty Analysis of Water Resources from a Systems Perspective

Conveners:

Abhishek Singh, INTERA Incorporated
Genetha Gray, Sandia National Laboratory

Description:

Addressing complex, large-scale, real-world water resources problems requires an integrated systems approach that incorporates interactions/feedback between various components and considers uncertainty at multiple levels. Examples include: coupling Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with surface water and ground water models to predict future water supplies in conjunction with economic models to estimate future demand; abstracting and linking complex numerical models within a systems framework for performance assessment of waste disposal sites; combining results from multiple conceptual models for groundwater flow and transport predictions; and coupling hydrodynamic and ecological models to optimize management of coastal wetlands. Complex systems typically have conceptual uncertainties, multiple (possibly ill-posed) parameters, varying spatio-temporal scales and different levels of variability/heterogeneities in its system components. As such, challenges arise in linking the different components of the system and estimating/reducing the uncertainty in model predictions. Additional challenges are also inherent in using such models for water resources management and optimizing management decisions. Research frontiers include scaling and abstracting techniques that allow different system components to be linked together, use of multiple models to capture conceptual uncertainties, inverse approaches that integrate information from different sources, and novel optimization techniques to constrain parametric, predictive, and management uncertainty.

This session solicits abstracts that respond to such challenges by proposing innovative and practice-oriented approaches and demonstrations of new or current methods to complex real-world water resources problems. The focus will be on the 'systems perspective', wherein efforts are made to study the behaviors of a system as a whole in the context of its environment. Case-studies and experiences from real field cases are welcome.

Papers and Abstracts:

Flood Feature Identification and Clustering in Wujiang River, South China
Xiaohong Chen, Lina Wang

Incorporating water management into a physically-based hydrologic model
Laura Condon, Reed Maxwell, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay

A framework for evaluating the net impact of algorithm decisions on hydrological model output: Numerical and conceptual abstractions
James Craig, Andrew Snowdon

Evaluation of the dispersion processes in conditioned transmissivity field
Giovanna Darvini, Paolo Saladin

Systems-Based Model for Subsurface Aquifer Recharge and Irrigation Management under Conditions of Uncertainty
Souheil Ezzedine, Andrew Tompson, Lee Glascoe

The Benefits of Deeper Analysis in Simulation-based Groundwater Optimization Problems
Aswin Kannan, Stefan Wild

Toward reduction of uncertainty in complex multi-reservoir river systems
Arturo Leon, Nathan Gibson, Christopher Gifford-Miears

Towards the intelligent control of river flooding. Harmonizing long-term objectives (e.g., irrigation, hydropower) with the flooding objective
Arturo Leon, Elizabeth Kanashiro, Tseganeh Zekiewos, Rachelle Valverde

A parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo method for probabilistic characterization of pollutant sources in groundwater systems
Kumar Mahinthakumar, Sarat Sreepathi, Shruthi

Joint experimental design and robust optimization in water resources
Matthew Parno, Youssef Marzouk

Delineation of hydrofacies in heterogeneous aquifers using the Truncated Plurigaussian method: a field case study in northern Italy
Raul Perulero Serrano, Laura Guadagnini, Mauro Giudici, Alberto Guadagnini

A Socioeconomic Framework For Incorporating Stakeholder Preferences In The Optimization Of Distributed Best Management Practices
Adriana Piemonti, Meghna Babbar-Sebens, E. Jane Luzar

Stochastic optimization of irrigation systems under water resource constraints from plot to regional scale using decomposition
Niels Schütze

An Integrated Systems Model for Performance Assessment of a Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Site
Abhishek Singh, Guillermo Martinez, John Tauxe, William Dornsife, Robert Holt

Stochastic System-Level Modeling of a Hydropower System to Inform Operational Decision Making
John Tauxe

System-Level Modeling to Support Decision Making with Uncertainty in Radiological Performance Assessment
John Tauxe, Paul Black

Hydraulic Modeling and Optimization for Real-Time Combined Sewer Overflow Decision Support
Andrea Zimmer, Barbara Minsker, Arthur Schmidt, Avi Ostfeld